Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction: Primeira Liga, Monday 19 October

Braga host Gil Vicente in Primeira Liga on Monday 19 October, kick-off 22:15 EAT. The match is played at Municipal (Braga). Braga are 8th in the table with 11 points from 7 games; Gil Vicente are 7th with 11.

Who will win Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Braga are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 25% for the draw and 17% for Gil Vicente. Megapari's 1.58 on Braga is shorter than our fair price of 1.72: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Braga to win (58%), Braga or draw (83%) and under 3.5 goals (76%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 12 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Braga vs Gil Vicente

Expected goals are 1.6 for Braga and 0.8 for Gil Vicente, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 46%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.

Braga vs Gil Vicente correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Braga and Gil Vicente in their last five

Braga have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Gil Vicente have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Braga: last five matches

Gil Vicente: last five matches

Braga vs Gil Vicente head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Braga won 2, Gil Vicente won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 14 February 2026, finished Gil Vicente 2–1 Braga.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.