Brest vs Nice prediction: Ligue 1, Friday 23 October

Brest host Nice in Ligue 1 on Friday 23 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Stade Francis-Le Ble (Brest). Brest are 7th in the table with 8 points from 6 games; Nice are 9th with 8.

Who will win Brest vs Nice?

Brest are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 26% for the draw and 27% for Nice. Megapari pays 2.31 on Brest, more than our fair price of 2.16.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Brest vs Nice

Expected goals are 1.7 for Brest and 1.1 for Nice, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Brest vs Nice correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Brest and Nice in their last five

Brest have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Nice have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Brest: last five matches

Nice: last five matches

Brest vs Nice head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Brest won 1, Nice won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 1 February 2026, finished Nice 2–2 Brest.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Brest has drifted from 2.19 to 2.31 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.83 to 1.76, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.