Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction: Premier League, Sunday 18 October

Brighton host Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at American Express (Brighton and Hove). Brighton are 3rd in the table with 13 points from 6 games; Crystal Palace are 15th with 4.

Who will win Brighton vs Crystal Palace?

Brighton are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 23% for the draw and 19% for Crystal Palace. Megapari's 1.63 on Brighton is shorter than our fair price of 1.70: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Brighton to win (59%) and Brighton or draw (81%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Expected goals are 1.9 for Brighton and 1.0 for Crystal Palace, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Brighton and Crystal Palace in their last five

Brighton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +9. Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Brighton: last five matches

Crystal Palace: last five matches

Brighton vs Crystal Palace head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Brighton won 1, Crystal Palace won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 8 February 2026, finished Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Brighton has shortened from 1.67 to 1.63 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.65 to 1.63, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.