Cagliari vs Bologna prediction: Serie A, Saturday 24 October

Cagliari host Bologna in Serie A on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Unipol Domus (Cagliari). Cagliari are 4th in the table with 13 points from 6 games; Bologna are 14th with 5.

Who will win Cagliari vs Bologna?

There is little to separate the sides: Cagliari 31%, the draw 31%, Bologna 39%. At 31% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.52 on Bologna sits right on our fair price of 2.59.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Cagliari vs Bologna

Expected goals are 1.1 for Cagliari and 1.2 for Bologna, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 44%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 50%.

Cagliari vs Bologna correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (12%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Cagliari and Bologna in their last five

Cagliari have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Bologna have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Cagliari: last five matches

Bologna: last five matches

Cagliari vs Bologna head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Cagliari won 1, Bologna won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Bologna 0–0 Cagliari.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Bologna has shortened from 2.58 to 2.52 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.25 to 2.24, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.