Cambuur vs AZ prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 18 October

Cambuur host AZ in Eredivisie on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 15:30 EAT. The match is played at Kooi (Leeuwarden). Cambuur are 15th in the table with 5 points from 7 games; AZ are 3rd with 19.

Who will win Cambuur vs AZ?

The model makes AZ clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 20% and Cambuur at 15%. Megapari's 1.37 on AZ is shorter than our fair price of 1.52: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: AZ to win (66%), draw or AZ (85%), over 1.5 goals (79%) and over 2.5 goals (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Cambuur vs AZ

Goals are expected: 1.0 for Cambuur and 2.1 for AZ, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 58%.

Cambuur vs AZ correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 10%, ahead of 0-2 (10%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Cambuur and AZ in their last five

Cambuur have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. AZ have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Cambuur: last five matches

AZ: last five matches

Cambuur vs AZ head to head

Cambuur and AZ have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.