EFL Championship
Cardiff City vs Birmingham City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 24 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Cardiff City
Birmingham City
- Cardiff City
- 40%Megapari 2.41
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.66
- Birmingham City
- 34%Megapari 2.58
- Both teams to score: yes59% · fair 1.69Bet 1.44
xG 1.4–1.2 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Cardiff City host Birmingham City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win Cardiff City vs Birmingham City?
There is little to separate the sides: Cardiff City 40%, the draw 26%, Birmingham City 34%. Megapari's 2.41 on Cardiff City is shorter than our fair price of 2.50: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City to win | 40% | 2.50 | 2.41 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | 3.66 |
| Birmingham City to win | 34% | 2.95 | 2.58 |
| Cardiff City or draw | 66% | 1.51 | 1.46 |
| Draw or Birmingham City | 60% | 1.66 | 1.52 |
| Cardiff City or Birmingham City | 74% | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 | 2.33 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.45 | 2.60 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Cardiff City vs Birmingham City
Expected goals are 1.4 for Cardiff City and 1.2 for Birmingham City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Cardiff City vs Birmingham City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 10.48 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.35 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.25 |
Form: Cardiff City and Birmingham City in their last five
Cardiff City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Birmingham City have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Cardiff City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth (away)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
Birmingham City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Derby County (away)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Wolves (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Southampton (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Cardiff City vs Birmingham City head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Cardiff City won 1, Birmingham City won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 10 April 2024, finished Birmingham City 0–1 Cardiff City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2024 | Birmingham City – Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 0-1 |
| 13 Dec 2023 | Cardiff City – Birmingham CityEFL Championship | 0-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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