UEFA Europa League
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Celje host Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Zdezhele (Celje).
Who will win Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
There is little to separate the sides: Celje 35%, the draw 25%, Red Bull Salzburg 40%. Megapari's 2.09 on Red Bull Salzburg is shorter than our fair price of 2.50: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celje to win | 35% | 2.82 | 3.45 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | 3.81 |
| Red Bull Salzburg to win | 40% | 2.50 | 2.09 |
| Celje or draw | 60% | 1.67 | 1.79 |
| Draw or Red Bull Salzburg | 65% | 1.55 | 1.34 |
| Celje or Red Bull Salzburg | 75% | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 | 2.19 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.45 | 2.26 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Expected goals are 1.8 for Celje and 1.6 for Red Bull Salzburg, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.68 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.40 |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | 12.99 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
| 1-0 | 6.0% | 16.64 |
Form: Celje and Red Bull Salzburg in their last five
Celje have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Celje: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Omonia (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Leverkusen (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Ararat-Armenia (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
Red Bull Salzburg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | AC Milan (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-4 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Levski Sofia (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Mjallby (home)UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Mjallby (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Pafos (away)UEFA Europa League | 3-3 | D |
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg head to head
Celje and Red Bull Salzburg have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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