Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 18 October

Celta Vigo host Deportivo Alavés in LaLiga on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 17:15 EAT. The match is played at Balaidos (Vigo). Celta Vigo are 9th in the table with 8 points from 8 games; Deportivo Alavés are 7th with 11.

Who will win Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?

Celta Vigo are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 27% for the draw and 24% for Deportivo Alavés. Megapari's 2.08 on Celta Vigo sits right on our fair price of 2.05.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés

Expected goals are 1.5 for Celta Vigo and 0.9 for Deportivo Alavés, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 46%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 50%.

Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 1-1 (13%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Celta Vigo and Deportivo Alavés in their last five

Celta Vigo have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Deportivo Alavés have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Celta Vigo: last five matches

Deportivo Alavés: last five matches

Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Celta Vigo won 2, Deportivo Alavés won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 22 March 2026, finished Celta Vigo 3–4 Deportivo Alavés.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.