Crystal Palace vs Newcastle prediction: Premier League, Sunday 25 October

Crystal Palace host Newcastle in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Selhurst Park (London). Crystal Palace are 13th in the table with 7 points from 6 games; Newcastle are 11th with 8.

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?

There is little to separate the sides: Crystal Palace 36%, the draw 26%, Newcastle 39%. Megapari's 2.42 on Newcastle is shorter than our fair price of 2.59: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Expected goals are 1.6 for Crystal Palace and 1.5 for Newcastle, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Crystal Palace and Newcastle in their last five

Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Newcastle have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Crystal Palace: last five matches

Newcastle: last five matches

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Crystal Palace won 2, Newcastle won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 12 April 2026, finished Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Newcastle has shortened from 2.65 to 2.42 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.68 to 1.69, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.