Deportivo Alavés vs Malaga prediction: LaLiga, Friday 23 October

Deportivo Alavés host Malaga in LaLiga on Friday 23 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz). Deportivo Alavés are 7th in the table with 11 points from 8 games; Malaga are 20th with 4.

Who will win Deportivo Alavés vs Malaga?

Deportivo Alavés are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 26% for the draw and 21% for Malaga. Megapari's 1.89 on Deportivo Alavés sits right on our fair price of 1.88.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Deportivo Alavés vs Malaga

Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportivo Alavés and 0.9 for Malaga, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.

Deportivo Alavés vs Malaga correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Deportivo Alavés and Malaga in their last five

Deportivo Alavés have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Malaga have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Deportivo Alavés: last five matches

Malaga: last five matches

Deportivo Alavés vs Malaga head to head

Deportivo Alavés and Malaga have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Deportivo Alavés has drifted from 1.80 to 1.89 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.08 to 2.07, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.