EFL Championship
Derby County vs Stoke City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Derby County
Stoke City
- Derby County
- 45%
- Draw
- 28%
- Stoke City
- 28%
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Derby County host Stoke City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win Derby County vs Stoke City?
There is little to separate the sides: Derby County 45%, the draw 28%, Stoke City 28%.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County to win | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.64 |
| Stoke City to win | 28% | 3.62 |
| Derby County or draw | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw or Stoke City | 55% | 1.81 |
| Derby County or Stoke City | 72% | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.09 |
Goals in Derby County vs Stoke City
Expected goals are 1.4 for Derby County and 1.1 for Stoke City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Derby County vs Stoke City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.65 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.87 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 11.43 |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 11.88 |
Form: Derby County and Stoke City in their last five
Derby County have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Stoke City are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Derby County: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Burnley (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (home)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Ham (away)EFL Championship | 0-3 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth (away)EFL Championship | 2-0 | W |
Stoke City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Watford (away)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (home)EFL Championship | 4-0 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
Derby County vs Stoke City head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Derby County won 1, Stoke City won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 6 April 2026, finished Derby County 2–0 Stoke City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Derby County – Stoke CityEFL Championship | 2-0 |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Stoke City – Derby CountyEFL Championship | 3-1 |
| 3 May 2025 | Derby County – Stoke CityEFL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Stoke City – Derby CountyEFL Championship | 2-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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