UEFA Europa League
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Dinamo Zagreb host NEC in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Maksimir (Zagreb). Dinamo Zagreb are 14th in the table with 4 points from 2 games; NEC are 27th with 1.
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC?
Dinamo Zagreb are favourites, though not by much: 57% to win, 22% for the draw and 21% for NEC. Megapari pays 1.84 on Dinamo Zagreb, more than our fair price of 1.76.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Dinamo Zagreb to win (57%), over 1.5 goals (83%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb to win Tip | 57% | 1.76 | 1.84 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | 3.98 |
| NEC to win | 21% | 4.75 | 4.26 |
| Dinamo Zagreb or draw | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Draw or NEC | 43% | 2.32 | 2.03 |
| Dinamo Zagreb or NEC | 78% | 1.28 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.57 | 2.31 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.45 | 2.26 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC
Goals are expected: 2.4 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.3 for NEC, 3.6 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (8%) and 3-1 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | 12.17 |
| 3-1 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
Form: Dinamo Zagreb and NEC in their last five
Dinamo Zagreb have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. NEC have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Dinamo Zagreb: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Anderlecht (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Hajduk Split (away)Croatian HNL | 1-2 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | NK Lokomotiva (home)Croatian HNL | 3-2 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Osijek (away)Croatian HNL | 2-4 | L |
NEC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Levski Sofia (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-5 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cambuur (away)Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC head to head
Dinamo Zagreb and NEC have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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