Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 17 October

Espanyol host Atlético Madrid in LaLiga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 15:00 EAT. The match is played at RCDE Stadium (Barcelona). Espanyol are 11th in the table with 8 points from 8 games; Atlético Madrid are 2nd with 16.

Who will win Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?

Atlético Madrid are favourites, though not by much: 51% to win, 25% for the draw and 23% for Espanyol. Megapari's 1.91 on Atlético Madrid sits right on our fair price of 1.95.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid

Expected goals are 1.1 for Espanyol and 1.7 for Atlético Madrid, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Espanyol and Atlético Madrid in their last five

Espanyol have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Atlético Madrid have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Espanyol: last five matches

Atlético Madrid: last five matches

Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Espanyol won 1, Atlético Madrid won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 21 February 2026, finished Atlético Madrid 4–2 Espanyol.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.