Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia prediction: Primeira Liga, Saturday 24 October

Estrela da Amadora host Casa Pia in Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at Jose Gomes (Amadora). Estrela da Amadora are 10th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Casa Pia are 17th with 4.

Who will win Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia?

Estrela da Amadora are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 26% for the draw and 22% for Casa Pia. Megapari's 1.73 on Estrela da Amadora is shorter than our fair price of 1.91: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia

Expected goals are 1.6 for Estrela da Amadora and 1.0 for Casa Pia, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.

Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Estrela da Amadora and Casa Pia in their last five

Estrela da Amadora have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Casa Pia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Estrela da Amadora: last five matches

Casa Pia: last five matches

Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Estrela da Amadora won 3, Casa Pia won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 20 March 2026, finished Estrela da Amadora 4–0 Casa Pia.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Estrela da Amadora has shortened from 1.86 to 1.73 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.98 to 1.98, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.