Everton vs Chelsea prediction: Premier League, Saturday 17 October

Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT. The match is played at Hill Dickinson (Liverpool). Everton are 7th in the table with 9 points from 5 games; Chelsea are 10th with 7.

Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?

There is little to separate the sides: Everton 36%, the draw 26%, Chelsea 38%. Megapari's 2.45 on Chelsea is shorter than our fair price of 2.66: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Everton vs Chelsea

Expected goals are 1.4 for Everton and 1.3 for Chelsea, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 58%.

Everton vs Chelsea correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Everton and Chelsea in their last five

Everton are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Chelsea have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Everton: last five matches

Chelsea: last five matches

Everton vs Chelsea head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Everton won 2, Chelsea won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 21 March 2026, finished Everton 3–0 Chelsea.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.