Falkirk vs Kilmarnock prediction: Scottish Premiership, Saturday 24 October

Falkirk host Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Falkirk (Falkirk). Falkirk are 9th in the table with 9 points from 9 games; Kilmarnock are 11th with 8.

Who will win Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Falkirk are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 24% for the draw and 25% for Kilmarnock. Megapari's 1.81 on Falkirk is shorter than our fair price of 1.94: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%) and both teams to score: yes (58%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Falkirk vs Kilmarnock

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Falkirk and 1.3 for Kilmarnock, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Falkirk and Kilmarnock in their last five

Falkirk have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Kilmarnock have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Falkirk: last five matches

Kilmarnock: last five matches

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock head to head

In their last three meetings in our data, Falkirk won 3, Kilmarnock won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished Falkirk 5–1 Kilmarnock.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Falkirk has drifted from 1.80 to 1.81 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.71 to 1.61, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.