Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor prediction: Süper Lig, Saturday 17 October

Fenerbahçe host Alanyaspor in the Süper Lig on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. The match is played at Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul). Fenerbahçe are 7th in the table with 10 points from 6 games; Alanyaspor are 6th with 12.

Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?

The model makes Fenerbahçe clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 18% and Alanyaspor at 11%. Megapari's 1.35 on Fenerbahçe is shorter than our fair price of 1.41: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Fenerbahçe to win (71%) and Fenerbahçe or draw (89%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor

Expected goals are 2.2 for Fenerbahçe and 0.8 for Alanyaspor, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.

Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor in their last five

Fenerbahçe have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +10. Alanyaspor have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Fenerbahçe: last five matches

Alanyaspor: last five matches

Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Fenerbahçe won 3, Alanyaspor won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 18 January 2026, finished Alanyaspor 2–3 Fenerbahçe.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.