Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 25 October

Fortuna Sittard host SBV Excelsior in Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 14:15 EAT. The match is played at Fortuna Sittard (Sittard). Fortuna Sittard are 7th in the table with 14 points from 8 games; SBV Excelsior are 10th with 11.

Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior?

There is little to separate the sides: Fortuna Sittard 39%, the draw 25%, SBV Excelsior 37%. Megapari pays 2.67 on Fortuna Sittard, more than our fair price of 2.58.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%), over 2.5 goals (60%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior

Goals are expected: 1.7 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.5 for SBV Excelsior, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.

Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Fortuna Sittard and SBV Excelsior in their last five

Fortuna Sittard have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. SBV Excelsior have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 6 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Fortuna Sittard: last five matches

SBV Excelsior: last five matches

Fortuna Sittard vs SBV Excelsior head to head

In their last three meetings in our data, Fortuna Sittard won 2, SBV Excelsior won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 20 February 2026, finished Fortuna Sittard 2–1 SBV Excelsior.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.