Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich prediction: Bundesliga, Sunday 25 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Freiburg
Bayern Munich
- Freiburg
- 16%Megapari 6.52
- Draw
- 17%Megapari 5.80
- Bayern Munich
- 67%Megapari 1.45
- Bayern Munich to win67% · fair 1.49Bet 1.45
- Draw or Bayern Munich84% · fair 1.19Bet 1.13
- Over 1.5 goals87% · fair 1.15Bet 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals74% · fair 1.36Bet 1.19
- Both teams to score: yes65% · fair 1.53Bet 1.35
xG 1.4–2.8 · likeliest 1-2 (8%)
Freiburg host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Europa Park (Freiburg im Breisgau). Freiburg are 3rd in the table with 13 points from 6 games; Bayern Munich are 1st with 14.
Who will win Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 17% and Freiburg at 16%. Megapari's 1.45 on Bayern Munich sits right on our fair price of 1.49.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Bayern Munich to win (67%), draw or Bayern Munich (84%), over 1.5 goals (87%), over 2.5 goals (74%) and both teams to score: yes (65%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg to win | 16% | 6.31 | 6.52 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.92 | 5.80 |
| Bayern Munich to win Tip | 67% | 1.49 | 1.45 |
| Freiburg or draw | 33% | 3.05 | 2.98 |
| Draw or Bayern Munich Tip | 84% | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Freiburg or Bayern Munich | 83% | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 87% | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 74% | 1.36 | 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26% | 3.79 | 4.05 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | 2.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 65% | 1.53 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | 2.89 | 2.98 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Goals are expected: 1.4 for Freiburg and 2.8 for Bayern Munich, 4.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 74%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 65%.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-2 at 8%, ahead of 1-3 (8%) and 1-1 (6%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.12 |
| 1-3 | 7.7% | 13.00 |
| 1-1 | 6.1% | 16.31 |
| 0-2 | 5.9% | 16.89 |
| 2-2 | 5.8% | 17.39 |
Form: Freiburg and Bayern Munich in their last five
Freiburg have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 20 goals scored and 7 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Freiburg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | Leverkusen (away)Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Jablonec (home)UEFA Conference League | 3-2 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Schalke 04 (home)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Gladbach (home)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
Bayern Munich: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | RB Leipzig (home)Bundesliga | 6-1 | W |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Viking (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-3 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (home)Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (away)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Freiburg won none, Bayern Munich won 4 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 4 April 2026, finished Freiburg 2–3 Bayern Munich.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Freiburg – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 2-3 |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Bayern Munich – FreiburgBundesliga | 6-2 |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Freiburg – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 1-2 |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Bayern Munich – FreiburgBundesliga | 2-0 |
| 1 Mar 2024 | Freiburg – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 2-2 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Bayern Munich has drifted from 1.42 to 1.45 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.22 to 1.19, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg to win | 6.77 | 6.52 ↓ |
| Draw | 6.16 | 5.80 ↓ |
| Bayern Munich to win | 1.42 | 1.45 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.19 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 4.05 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.38 | 1.35 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.85 | 2.98 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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