GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense prediction: Primeira Liga, Sunday 25 October

GD Estoril Praia host Moreirense in Primeira Liga on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 18:30 EAT. The match is played at Antonio Coimbra da Mota (Estoril). GD Estoril Praia are 18th in the table with 2 points from 8 games; Moreirense are 12th with 8.

Who will win GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense?

GD Estoril Praia are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 26% for the draw and 25% for Moreirense. Megapari's 1.80 on GD Estoril Praia is shorter than our fair price of 2.03: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense

Expected goals are 1.6 for GD Estoril Praia and 1.2 for Moreirense, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: GD Estoril Praia and Moreirense in their last five

GD Estoril Praia have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. Moreirense have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.

GD Estoril Praia: last five matches

Moreirense: last five matches

GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, GD Estoril Praia won none, Moreirense won 3 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 20 April 2026, finished Moreirense 1–0 GD Estoril Praia.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on GD Estoril Praia has shortened from 1.94 to 1.80 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.94 to 1.81, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.