UEFA Conference League
Getafe vs Lugano prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Getafe
Lugano
- Getafe
- 42%Megapari 1.84
- Draw
- 30%Megapari 3.67
- Lugano
- 28%Megapari 4.56
- Under 3.5 goals83% · fair 1.20Bet 1.25
xG 0.9–0.9 · likeliest 0-0 (17%)
Getafe host Lugano in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Coliseum (Getafe). Getafe are 15th in the table with 1 points from 1 games; Lugano are 8th with 3.
Who will win Getafe vs Lugano?
There is little to separate the sides: Getafe 42%, the draw 30%, Lugano 28%. At 30% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 1.84 on Getafe is shorter than our fair price of 2.38: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe to win | 42% | 2.38 | 1.84 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | 3.67 |
| Lugano to win | 28% | 3.57 | 4.56 |
| Getafe or draw | 72% | 1.39 | 1.22 |
| Draw or Lugano | 58% | 1.73 | 2.01 |
| Getafe or Lugano | 70% | 1.43 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.35 | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.74 | 1.85 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | 2.08 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | 1.93 | 1.87 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Getafe vs Lugano
Expected goals are 0.9 for Getafe and 0.9 for Lugano, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 43%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.
Getafe vs Lugano correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-0 at 17%, ahead of 0-1 (15%) and 1-1 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 16.5% | 6.05 |
| 0-1 | 14.6% | 6.84 |
| 1-1 | 14.0% | 7.16 |
| 1-0 | 13.6% | 7.34 |
| 0-2 | 7.2% | 13.93 |
Form: Getafe and Lugano in their last five
Getafe have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Lugano are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 17 goals scored and 5 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Getafe: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Universitatea Craiova (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Barcelona (away)LaLiga | 0-3 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Malaga (home)LaLiga | 1-0 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Real Betis (away)LaLiga | 0-1 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Deportivo de A Coruna (home)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
Lugano: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Red Star Belgrade (home)UEFA Conference League | 3-2 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Luzern (home)Swiss Super League | 4-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Lausanne-Sport (away)Swiss Super League | 4-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | St. Gallen (home)Swiss Super League | 4-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Young Boys (home)Swiss Super League | 2-2 | D |
Getafe vs Lugano head to head
Getafe and Lugano have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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