Gil Vicente vs Porto prediction: Primeira Liga, Saturday 24 October

Gil Vicente host Porto in Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 22:30 EAT. The match is played at Estadio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos). Gil Vicente are 7th in the table with 11 points from 7 games; Porto are 1st with 24.

Who will win Gil Vicente vs Porto?

The model makes Porto clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 24% and Gil Vicente at 15%. Megapari's 1.45 on Porto is shorter than our fair price of 1.64: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Porto to win (61%), draw or Porto (85%) and under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Gil Vicente vs Porto

Expected goals are 0.7 for Gil Vicente and 1.5 for Porto, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 46%.

Gil Vicente vs Porto correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-1 at 16%, ahead of 0-2 (12%) and 1-1 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Gil Vicente and Porto in their last five

Gil Vicente have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Porto have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Gil Vicente: last five matches

Porto: last five matches

Gil Vicente vs Porto head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Gil Vicente won 1, Porto won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 26 January 2026, finished Porto 3–0 Gil Vicente.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.