Groningen vs Ajax prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 18 October

Groningen host Ajax in Eredivisie on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 17:45 EAT. The match is played at Euroborg (Groningen). Groningen are 8th in the table with 11 points from 7 games; Ajax are 5th with 15.

Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?

Ajax are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 23% for the draw and 27% for Groningen. Megapari's 1.70 on Ajax is shorter than our fair price of 1.98: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (64%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Groningen vs Ajax

Goals are expected: 1.5 for Groningen and 1.8 for Ajax, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.

Groningen vs Ajax correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Groningen and Ajax in their last five

Groningen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Ajax have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Groningen: last five matches

Ajax: last five matches

Groningen vs Ajax head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Groningen won 1, Ajax won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 7 March 2026, finished Groningen 3–1 Ajax.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Ajax has drifted from 1.70 to 1.70 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.33 to 1.31, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.