Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October

Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Volksparkstadion (Hamburg). Hamburger SV are 16th in the table with 3 points from 4 games; VfB Stuttgart are 15th with 3.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

VfB Stuttgart are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 23% for the draw and 24% for Hamburger SV. Megapari's 1.90 on VfB Stuttgart sits right on our fair price of 1.90.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (64%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Goals are expected: 1.3 for Hamburger SV and 2.0 for VfB Stuttgart, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in their last five

Hamburger SV have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -11. VfB Stuttgart have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Hamburger SV: last five matches

VfB Stuttgart: last five matches

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Hamburger SV won 1, VfB Stuttgart won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 12 April 2026, finished VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.