Inter vs Fiorentina prediction: Serie A, Sunday 25 October

Inter host Fiorentina in Serie A on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT. The match is played at Giuseppe Meazza (Milan). Inter are 1st in the table with 19 points from 7 games; Fiorentina are 17th with 4.

Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?

The model makes Inter clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 17% and Fiorentina at 12%. Megapari's 1.41 on Inter sits right on our fair price of 1.41.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Inter to win (71%), Inter or draw (88%), over 1.5 goals (83%) and over 2.5 goals (64%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Inter vs Fiorentina

Goals are expected: 2.6 for Inter and 1.0 for Fiorentina, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Inter vs Fiorentina correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Inter and Fiorentina in their last five

Inter have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Inter: last five matches

Fiorentina: last five matches

Inter vs Fiorentina head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Inter won 3, Fiorentina won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 22 March 2026, finished Fiorentina 1–1 Inter.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Inter has shortened from 1.43 to 1.41 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.42 to 1.40, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.