Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 21 October

Inter host Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Giuseppe Meazza (Milan). Inter are 29th in the table with 0 points from 2 games; Shakhtar Donetsk are 11th with 4.

Who will win Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The model makes Inter clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 17% and Shakhtar Donetsk at 14%. Megapari's 1.24 on Inter is shorter than our fair price of 1.44: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Inter to win (70%), Inter or draw (86%), over 1.5 goals (82%) and over 2.5 goals (66%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Goals are expected: 2.2 for Inter and 1.2 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 66%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk in their last five

Inter have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 12 goals scored and 2 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Inter: last five matches

Shakhtar Donetsk: last five matches

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk head to head

Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.31 to 1.30, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.