UEFA Conference League
Kairat vs Panathinaikos prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Kairat
Panathinaikos
- Kairat
- 25%Megapari 4.08
- Draw
- 28%Megapari 3.81
- Panathinaikos
- 47%Megapari 1.89
- Under 3.5 goals80% · fair 1.25Bet 1.32
xG 0.9–1.2 · likeliest 0-1 (14%)
Kairat host Panathinaikos in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at Central Stadium (Almaty). Kairat are 18th in the table with 1 points from 1 games; Panathinaikos are 11th with 3.
Who will win Kairat vs Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos are favourites, though not by much: 47% to win, 28% for the draw and 25% for Kairat. Megapari's 1.89 on Panathinaikos is shorter than our fair price of 2.13: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat to win | 25% | 3.99 | 4.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | 3.81 |
| Panathinaikos to win | 47% | 2.13 | 1.89 |
| Kairat or draw | 53% | 1.88 | 1.95 |
| Draw or Panathinaikos | 75% | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Kairat or Panathinaikos | 72% | 1.39 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.48 | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.14 | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 | 1.99 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | 1.96 | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | 2.04 | 2.02 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 12:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Kairat vs Panathinaikos
Expected goals are 0.9 for Kairat and 1.2 for Panathinaikos, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.
Kairat vs Panathinaikos correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-1 (14%) and 0-0 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 14.5% | 6.90 |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | 7.28 |
| 0-0 | 13.1% | 7.65 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 0-2 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
Form: Kairat and Panathinaikos in their last five
Kairat have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 1 in that run. Panathinaikos have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Kairat: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Riga (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Anderlecht (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Anderlecht (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Levski Sofia (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Levski Sofia (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
Panathinaikos: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Borac Banja Luka (home)UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Olympiacos (away)Super League Greece | 0-1 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Kalamata (away)Super League Greece | 1-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Panetolikos (home)Super League Greece | 3-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Kifisias (home)Super League Greece | 3-1 | W |
Kairat vs Panathinaikos head to head
Kairat and Panathinaikos have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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