KCCA vs UPDF prediction: Uganda Premier League, Thursday 22 October

KCCA host UPDF in the Uganda Premier League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. KCCA are 6th in the table with 10 points from 6 games; UPDF are 9th with 8.

Who will win KCCA vs UPDF?

The model makes KCCA clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 23% and UPDF at 11%.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: KCCA to win (66%), KCCA or draw (89%) and under 3.5 goals (77%).

Goals in KCCA vs UPDF

Expected goals are 1.7 for KCCA and 0.5 for UPDF, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 45%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 45%.

KCCA vs UPDF correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 17%, ahead of 2-0 (15%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: KCCA and UPDF in their last five

KCCA have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. UPDF have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

KCCA: last five matches

UPDF: last five matches

KCCA vs UPDF head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, KCCA won 5, UPDF won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 13 May 2026, finished UPDF 1–2 KCCA.

The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.