Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction: Scottish Premiership, Saturday 17 October

Kilmarnock host Motherwell in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Rugby Park (Kilmarnock). Kilmarnock are 12th in the table with 5 points from 7 games; Motherwell are 9th with 8.

Who will win Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Motherwell are favourites, though not by much: 45% to win, 26% for the draw and 29% for Kilmarnock. Megapari's 2.19 on Motherwell sits right on our fair price of 2.22.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Kilmarnock vs Motherwell

Expected goals are 1.2 for Kilmarnock and 1.7 for Motherwell, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Kilmarnock and Motherwell in their last five

Kilmarnock have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Motherwell have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Kilmarnock: last five matches

Motherwell: last five matches

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Kilmarnock won 1, Motherwell won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 24 January 2026, finished Motherwell 4–0 Kilmarnock.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.