Köln vs Schalke 04 prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 24 October

Köln host Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Rhein Energie (Cologne). Köln are 12th in the table with 7 points from 6 games; Schalke 04 are 14th with 5.

Who will win Köln vs Schalke 04?

There is little to separate the sides: Köln 45%, the draw 27%, Schalke 04 28%. Megapari's 2.12 on Köln is shorter than our fair price of 2.24: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Köln vs Schalke 04

Expected goals are 1.3 for Köln and 1.0 for Schalke 04, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Köln vs Schalke 04 correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (13%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Köln and Schalke 04 in their last five

Köln have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Schalke 04 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Köln: last five matches

Schalke 04: last five matches

Köln vs Schalke 04 head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Köln won 2, Schalke 04 won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 9 February 2025, finished Köln 1–0 Schalke 04.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Köln has shortened from 2.25 to 2.12 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.73 to 1.64, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.