Lazio vs Parma prediction: Serie A, Saturday 24 October

Lazio host Parma in Serie A on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Olimpico (Rome). Lazio are 2nd in the table with 16 points from 6 games; Parma are 18th with 4.

Who will win Lazio vs Parma?

Lazio are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 26% for the draw and 16% for Parma. Megapari's 1.58 on Lazio is shorter than our fair price of 1.70: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Lazio to win (59%), Lazio or draw (84%) and under 3.5 goals (80%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lazio vs Parma

Expected goals are 1.4 for Lazio and 0.6 for Parma, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 44%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 46%.

Lazio vs Parma correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 18%, ahead of 0-0 (13%) and 2-0 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Lazio and Parma in their last five

Lazio are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lazio: last five matches

Parma: last five matches

Lazio vs Parma head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Lazio won 1, Parma won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 4 April 2026, finished Lazio 1–1 Parma.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Lazio has shortened from 1.63 to 1.58 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.17 to 2.06, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.