Ligue 1
Le Havre vs AJ Auxerre prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 18 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Le Havre
AJ Auxerre
- Le Havre
- 38%Megapari 2.52
- Draw
- 29%Megapari 3.51
- AJ Auxerre
- 33%Megapari 3.00
- Under 3.5 goals77% · fair 1.30Bet 1.32
xG 1.2–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (14%)
Le Havre host AJ Auxerre in Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Oceane (Le Havre). Le Havre are 18th in the table with 2 points from 6 games; AJ Auxerre are 15th with 6.
Who will win Le Havre vs AJ Auxerre?
There is little to separate the sides: Le Havre 38%, the draw 29%, AJ Auxerre 33%. Megapari's 2.52 on Le Havre is shorter than our fair price of 2.60: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre to win | 38% | 2.60 | 2.52 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.51 |
| AJ Auxerre to win | 33% | 3.06 | 3.00 |
| Le Havre or draw | 67% | 1.49 | 1.44 |
| Draw or AJ Auxerre | 62% | 1.62 | 1.59 |
| Le Havre or AJ Auxerre | 71% | 1.41 | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | 2.00 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.30 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.87 | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.15 | 2.13 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Le Havre vs AJ Auxerre
Expected goals are 1.2 for Le Havre and 1.1 for AJ Auxerre, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Le Havre vs AJ Auxerre correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.8% | 7.24 |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | 8.51 |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | 9.19 |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | 9.37 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.69 |
Form: Le Havre and AJ Auxerre in their last five
Le Havre have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. AJ Auxerre have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Le Havre: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Lille (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Toulouse (away)Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Angers SCO (home)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Lyon (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
AJ Auxerre: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Rennes (away)Ligue 1 | 1-4 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Nice (home)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Lyon (away)Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Angers SCO (home)Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
Le Havre vs AJ Auxerre head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Le Havre won 3, AJ Auxerre won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 5 April 2026, finished Le Havre 1–1 AJ Auxerre.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Le Havre – AJ AuxerreLigue 1 | 1-1 |
| 26 Oct 2025 | AJ Auxerre – Le HavreLigue 1 | 0-1 |
| 4 May 2025 | AJ Auxerre – Le HavreLigue 1 | 1-2 |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Le Havre – AJ AuxerreLigue 1 | 3-1 |
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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