UEFA Europa League
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lech Poznań
Sunderland
- Lech Poznań
- 32%Megapari 5.07
- Draw
- 25%Megapari 3.94
- Sunderland
- 43%Megapari 1.73
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.6–1.3 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Lech Poznań host Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at INEA stadion (Poznan). Lech Poznań are 36th in the table with 0 points from 2 games; Sunderland are 9th with 6.
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
There is little to separate the sides: Lech Poznań 32%, the draw 25%, Sunderland 43%. Megapari's 1.73 on Sunderland is shorter than our fair price of 2.31: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań to win | 32% | 3.16 | 5.07 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | 3.94 |
| Sunderland to win | 43% | 2.31 | 1.73 |
| Lech Poznań or draw | 57% | 1.76 | 2.19 |
| Draw or Sunderland | 68% | 1.46 | 1.19 |
| Lech Poznań or Sunderland | 75% | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 2.02 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.46 | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.85 | 1.77 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.18 | 1.96 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lech Poznań vs Sunderland
Expected goals are 1.6 for Lech Poznań and 1.3 for Sunderland, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.34 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 14.01 |
Form: Lech Poznań and Sunderland in their last five
Lech Poznań have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Sunderland have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lech Poznań: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Leverkusen (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-4 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Slask Wroclaw (away)Ekstraklasa | 4-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | RKS Radomiak Radom (home)Ekstraklasa | 5-1 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Crystal Palace (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Gornik Zabrze (away)Ekstraklasa | 1-2 | L |
Sunderland: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | S.C.U. Torreense (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Brighton (home)Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Man City (away)Premier League | 3-5 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | AZ (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Arsenal (home)Premier League | 0-2 | L |
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland head to head
Lech Poznań and Sunderland have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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