Leeds vs Man United prediction: Premier League, Sunday 18 October

Leeds host Man United in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Elland Road (Leeds). Leeds are 6th in the table with 9 points from 6 games; Man United are 12th with 6.

Who will win Leeds vs Man United?

There is little to separate the sides: Leeds 39%, the draw 27%, Man United 34%. Megapari's 2.52 on Leeds sits right on our fair price of 2.56.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (58%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Leeds vs Man United

Expected goals are 1.4 for Leeds and 1.3 for Man United, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.

Leeds vs Man United correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Leeds and Man United in their last five

Leeds have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Man United have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Leeds: last five matches

Man United: last five matches

Leeds vs Man United head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Leeds won 1, Man United won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 13 April 2026, finished Man United 1–2 Leeds.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Leeds has shortened from 2.94 to 2.52 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.69 to 1.70, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.