Lens vs Paris prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 24 October

Lens host Paris in Ligue 1 on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). Lens are 11th in the table with 7 points from 6 games; Paris are 5th with 11.

Who will win Lens vs Paris?

Lens are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 25% for the draw and 25% for Paris. Megapari's 2.09 on Lens sits right on our fair price of 2.03.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lens vs Paris

Expected goals are 1.7 for Lens and 1.0 for Paris, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Lens vs Paris correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Lens and Paris in their last five

Lens have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Paris have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lens: last five matches

Paris: last five matches

Lens vs Paris head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Lens won 2, Paris won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 14 February 2026, finished Paris 0–5 Lens.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Lens has shortened from 2.16 to 2.09 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.73 to 1.68, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.