Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao prediction: LaLiga, Wednesday 21 October

Levante UD host Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. The match is played at Ciudad de Valencia (Valencia). Levante UD are 17th in the table with 6 points from 7 games; Athletic Bilbao are 10th with 8.

Who will win Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao?

There is little to separate the sides: Levante UD 34%, the draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao 39%. Megapari's 2.24 on Athletic Bilbao is shorter than our fair price of 2.56: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 14 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao

Expected goals are 1.4 for Levante UD and 1.3 for Athletic Bilbao, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Levante UD and Athletic Bilbao in their last five

Levante UD have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Athletic Bilbao have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Levante UD: last five matches

Athletic Bilbao: last five matches

Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Levante UD won none, Athletic Bilbao won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 8 February 2026, finished Athletic Bilbao 4–2 Levante UD.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Athletic Bilbao has shortened from 2.25 to 2.24 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.08 to 2.02, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.