Leverkusen vs Freiburg prediction: Bundesliga, Sunday 18 October

Leverkusen host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at BayArena (Leverkusen). Leverkusen are 4th in the table with 10 points from 5 games; Freiburg are 3rd with 10.

Who will win Leverkusen vs Freiburg?

Leverkusen are favourites, though not by much: 57% to win, 22% for the draw and 21% for Freiburg. Megapari's 1.70 on Leverkusen sits right on our fair price of 1.75.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Leverkusen to win (57%), over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (62%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Leverkusen vs Freiburg

Goals are expected: 2.1 for Leverkusen and 1.2 for Freiburg, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Leverkusen vs Freiburg correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Leverkusen and Freiburg in their last five

Leverkusen are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 14 goals scored and 5 conceded. Freiburg are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 16 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Leverkusen: last five matches

Freiburg: last five matches

Leverkusen vs Freiburg head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Leverkusen won 4, Freiburg won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 7 March 2026, finished Freiburg 3–3 Leverkusen.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.