Lille vs Brest prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 17 October

Lille host Brest in Ligue 1 on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve-d'Ascq). Lille are 1st in the table with 13 points from 6 games; Brest are 12th with 5.

Who will win Lille vs Brest?

Lille are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 24% for the draw and 19% for Brest. Megapari's 1.73 on Lille sits right on our fair price of 1.73.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Lille to win (58%) and Lille or draw (81%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lille vs Brest

Expected goals are 1.8 for Lille and 0.9 for Brest, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.

Lille vs Brest correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-1 (11%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Lille and Brest in their last five

Lille have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Brest have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lille: last five matches

Brest: last five matches

Lille vs Brest head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Lille won 2, Brest won 1 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 14 February 2026, finished Lille 1–1 Brest.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Lille has drifted from 1.66 to 1.73 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.74 to 1.76, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.