UEFA Champions League
Lille vs Galatasaray prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 21 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lille
Galatasaray
- Lille
- 48%Megapari 2.24
- Draw
- 25%Megapari 3.75
- Galatasaray
- 27%Megapari 3.31
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.7–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Lille host Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve-d'Ascq). Lille are 34th in the table with 0 points from 2 games; Galatasaray are 35th with 0.
Who will win Lille vs Galatasaray?
Lille are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 25% for the draw and 27% for Galatasaray. Megapari pays 2.24 on Lille, more than our fair price of 2.09.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille to win | 48% | 2.09 | 2.24 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | 3.75 |
| Galatasaray to win | 27% | 3.75 | 3.31 |
| Lille or draw | 73% | 1.36 | 1.38 |
| Draw or Galatasaray | 52% | 1.92 | 1.73 |
| Lille or Galatasaray | 75% | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.18 | 2.19 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.77 | 1.59 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.30 | 2.24 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 15 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lille vs Galatasaray
Expected goals are 1.7 for Lille and 1.1 for Galatasaray, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Lille vs Galatasaray correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | 10.17 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.29 |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 15.62 |
Form: Lille and Galatasaray in their last five
Lille have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Galatasaray have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lille: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Arsenal (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Le Havre (home)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Nice (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Troyes (home)Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Real Betis (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
Galatasaray: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Barcelona (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Kasimpasa (home)Süper Lig | 3-1 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Trabzonspor (away)Süper Lig | 0-4 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Kocaelispor (home)Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Sporting CP (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
Lille vs Galatasaray head to head
Lille and Galatasaray have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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