UEFA Europa League
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lillestrom
Real Sociedad
- Lillestrom
- 26%Megapari 5.52
- Draw
- 24%Megapari 4.36
- Real Sociedad
- 50%Megapari 1.61
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.3–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Lillestrom host Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Arasen (Lillestrom). Lillestrom are 23rd in the table with 1 points from 2 games; Real Sociedad are 22nd with 1.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 24% for the draw and 26% for Lillestrom. Megapari's 1.61 on Real Sociedad is shorter than our fair price of 2.02: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom to win | 26% | 3.84 | 5.52 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | 4.36 |
| Real Sociedad to win | 50% | 2.02 | 1.61 |
| Lillestrom or draw | 50% | 1.98 | 2.40 |
| Draw or Real Sociedad | 74% | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| Lillestrom or Real Sociedad | 76% | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | 2.17 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.85 | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.18 | 2.00 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Expected goals are 1.3 for Lillestrom and 1.4 for Real Sociedad, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (9%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.92 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.44 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.66 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
Form: Lillestrom and Real Sociedad in their last five
Lillestrom have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Real Sociedad have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lillestrom: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Sparta Prague (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Molde (home)Eliteserien | 2-2 | D |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Viking (away)Eliteserien | 0-3 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | S.C.U. Torreense (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Valerenga (home)Eliteserien | 2-0 | W |
Real Sociedad: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Union Saint-Gilloise (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Deportivo de A Coruna (home)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Valencia (away)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Bournemouth (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Atlético Madrid (home)LaLiga | 0-3 | L |
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad head to head
Lillestrom and Real Sociedad have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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