EFL Championship
Lincoln City vs Burnley prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 24 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lincoln City
Burnley
- Lincoln City
- 40%Megapari 2.89
- Draw
- 27%Megapari 3.44
- Burnley
- 33%Megapari 2.31
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.5–1.0 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Lincoln City host Burnley in the EFL Championship on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win Lincoln City vs Burnley?
There is little to separate the sides: Lincoln City 40%, the draw 27%, Burnley 33%. Megapari pays 2.89 on Lincoln City, more than our fair price of 2.49.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City to win | 40% | 2.49 | 2.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | 3.44 |
| Burnley to win | 33% | 3.07 | 2.31 |
| Lincoln City or draw | 67% | 1.48 | 1.57 |
| Draw or Burnley | 60% | 1.67 | 1.38 |
| Lincoln City or Burnley | 73% | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | 1.90 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.87 | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.15 | 2.09 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lincoln City vs Burnley
Expected goals are 1.5 for Lincoln City and 1.0 for Burnley, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Lincoln City vs Burnley correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.72 |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 2-0 | 9.4% | 10.68 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.96 |
Form: Lincoln City and Burnley in their last five
Lincoln City have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Burnley have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lincoln City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Preston North End (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Southampton (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Blackburn Rovers (home)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
Burnley: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Derby County (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Lincoln City vs Burnley head to head
Lincoln City and Burnley have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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