Liverpool vs Brighton prediction: Premier League, Sunday 25 October

Liverpool host Brighton in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Anfield (Liverpool). Liverpool are 5th in the table with 12 points from 7 games; Brighton are 3rd with 13.

Who will win Liverpool vs Brighton?

There is little to separate the sides: Liverpool 45%, the draw 25%, Brighton 30%. Megapari's 2.11 on Liverpool is shorter than our fair price of 2.23: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Liverpool vs Brighton

Goals are expected: 1.6 for Liverpool and 1.4 for Brighton, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Liverpool vs Brighton correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Liverpool and Brighton in their last five

Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Brighton are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 15 goals scored and 1 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Liverpool: last five matches

Brighton: last five matches

Liverpool vs Brighton head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Liverpool won 3, Brighton won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 21 March 2026, finished Brighton 2–1 Liverpool.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Liverpool has drifted from 1.91 to 2.11 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.65 to 1.51, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.