UEFA Champions League
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 20 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Liverpool
Villarreal
- Liverpool
- 68%Megapari 1.53
- Draw
- 18%Megapari 4.88
- Villarreal
- 14%Megapari 6.36
- Liverpool to win68% · fair 1.48Bet 1.53
- Liverpool or draw86% · fair 1.17Bet 1.15
- Over 1.5 goals85% · fair 1.17Bet 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals65% · fair 1.54Bet 1.46
- Both teams to score: yes58% · fair 1.72Bet 1.61
xG 2.8–1.1 · likeliest 2-1 (9%)
Liverpool host Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Anfield (Liverpool). Liverpool are 5th in the table with 6 points from 2 games; Villarreal are 14th with 3.
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The model makes Liverpool clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 18% and Villarreal at 14%. Megapari pays 1.53 on Liverpool, more than our fair price of 1.48.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Liverpool to win (68%), Liverpool or draw (86%), over 1.5 goals (85%), over 2.5 goals (65%) and both teams to score: yes (58%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win Tip | 68% | 1.48 | 1.53 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.51 | 4.88 |
| Villarreal to win | 14% | 7.00 | 6.36 |
| Liverpool or draw Tip | 86% | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Draw or Villarreal | 32% | 3.08 | 2.69 |
| Liverpool or Villarreal | 82% | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 85% | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 65% | 1.54 | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.86 | 2.49 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | 1.70 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 58% | 1.72 | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.40 | 2.20 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 15 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Liverpool vs Villarreal
Goals are expected: 2.8 for Liverpool and 1.1 for Villarreal, 3.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 65%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.
Liverpool vs Villarreal correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 3-1 (8%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 3-1 | 8.1% | 12.38 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.18 |
| 3-0 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
| 1-1 | 6.6% | 15.17 |
Form: Liverpool and Villarreal in their last five
Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Villarreal have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Liverpool: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | LASK (away)UEFA Champions League | 6-3 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Man City (home)Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bournemouth (away)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Fulham (home)Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Atlético Madrid (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
Villarreal: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Napoli (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Real Madrid (away)LaLiga | 0-1 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Levante UD (home)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Malaga (away)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Real Betis (home)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
Liverpool vs Villarreal head to head
Liverpool and Villarreal have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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