Lorient vs Monaco prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 18 October

Lorient host Monaco in Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Stade du Moustoir (Lorient). Lorient are 8th in the table with 8 points from 6 games; Monaco are 1st with 14.

Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?

There is little to separate the sides: Lorient 30%, the draw 26%, Monaco 44%. Megapari's 2.10 on Monaco is shorter than our fair price of 2.26: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (78%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lorient vs Monaco

Expected goals are 1.4 for Lorient and 1.6 for Monaco, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Lorient vs Monaco correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Lorient and Monaco in their last five

Lorient have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Monaco are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 9 goals scored and 5 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lorient: last five matches

Monaco: last five matches

Lorient vs Monaco head to head

In their last three meetings in our data, Lorient won 2, Monaco won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 16 January 2026, finished Monaco 1–3 Lorient.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Monaco has shortened from 2.17 to 2.10 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.92 to 1.90, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.