Ligue 1
Lyon vs Nice prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 18 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lyon host Nice in Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon). Lyon are 3rd in the table with 11 points from 6 games; Nice are 9th with 8.
Who will win Lyon vs Nice?
The model makes Lyon clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and Nice at 16%. Megapari pays 1.71 on Lyon, more than our fair price of 1.64.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Lyon to win (61%) and Lyon or draw (84%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon to win Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.71 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | 4.16 |
| Nice to win | 16% | 6.08 | 5.24 |
| Lyon or draw Tip | 84% | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Draw or Nice | 39% | 2.57 | 2.27 |
| Lyon or Nice | 78% | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 | 2.21 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.88 | 1.70 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.14 | 2.05 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lyon vs Nice
Expected goals are 2.0 for Lyon and 0.8 for Nice, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Lyon vs Nice correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.82 |
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 9.91 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.21 |
| 3-0 | 8.0% | 12.56 |
Form: Lyon and Nice in their last five
Lyon have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Nice have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lyon: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | Lens (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Rennes (home)Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Anderlecht (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Paris (away)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | AJ Auxerre (home)Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
Nice: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Strasbourg (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Lille (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | AJ Auxerre (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Le Mans (home)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Paris (away)Ligue 1 | 0-3 | L |
Lyon vs Nice head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Lyon won 4, Nice won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 15 February 2026, finished Lyon 2–0 Nice.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Lyon – NiceLigue 1 | 2-0 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Nice – LyonLigue 1 | 3-2 |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Nice – LyonLigue 1 | 0-2 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Lyon – NiceLigue 1 | 4-1 |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Lyon – NiceLigue 1 | 1-0 |
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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