Mainz vs SV Werder Bremen prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 24 October

Mainz host SV Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Mewa Arena (Mainz). Mainz are 5th in the table with 10 points from 6 games; SV Werder Bremen are 8th with 9.

Who will win Mainz vs SV Werder Bremen?

Mainz are favourites, though not by much: 55% to win, 23% for the draw and 21% for SV Werder Bremen. Megapari's 1.73 on Mainz is shorter than our fair price of 1.81: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: Mainz to win (55%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Mainz vs SV Werder Bremen

Expected goals are 1.8 for Mainz and 1.1 for SV Werder Bremen, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Mainz vs SV Werder Bremen correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Mainz and SV Werder Bremen in their last five

Mainz have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. SV Werder Bremen are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Mainz: last five matches

SV Werder Bremen: last five matches

Mainz vs SV Werder Bremen head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Mainz won 1, SV Werder Bremen won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 15 March 2026, finished SV Werder Bremen 0–2 Mainz.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Mainz has shortened from 1.84 to 1.73 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.47 to 1.50, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.