LaLiga
Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 18 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Malaga
Real Sociedad
- Malaga
- 33%Megapari 3.29
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.63
- Real Sociedad
- 40%Megapari 2.29
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Malaga host Real Sociedad in LaLiga on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at La Rosaleda (Malaga). Malaga are 19th in the table with 4 points from 8 games; Real Sociedad are 6th with 13.
Who will win Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
There is little to separate the sides: Malaga 33%, the draw 26%, Real Sociedad 40%. Megapari's 2.29 on Real Sociedad is shorter than our fair price of 2.49: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga to win | 33% | 3.01 | 3.29 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 | 3.63 |
| Real Sociedad to win | 40% | 2.49 | 2.29 |
| Malaga or draw | 60% | 1.67 | 1.70 |
| Draw or Real Sociedad | 67% | 1.50 | 1.39 |
| Malaga or Real Sociedad | 74% | 1.36 | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 | 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.46 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.77 | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.31 | 2.19 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Expected goals are 1.4 for Malaga and 1.4 for Real Sociedad, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Malaga vs Real Sociedad correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (8%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.21 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 11.86 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.85 |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
Form: Malaga and Real Sociedad in their last five
Malaga have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. Real Sociedad have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Malaga: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | Espanyol (home)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Getafe (away)LaLiga | 0-1 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Villarreal (home)LaLiga | 1-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Celta Vigo (away)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Levante UD (home)LaLiga | 0-0 | D |
Real Sociedad: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Deportivo de A Coruna (home)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Valencia (away)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Bournemouth (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Atlético Madrid (home)LaLiga | 0-3 | L |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Elche (away)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
Malaga vs Real Sociedad head to head
Malaga and Real Sociedad have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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