Man United vs Bournemouth prediction: Premier League, Sunday 25 October

Man United host Bournemouth in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Old Trafford (Manchester). Man United are 14th in the table with 6 points from 6 games; Bournemouth are 19th with 3.

Who will win Man United vs Bournemouth?

Man United are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 24% for the draw and 26% for Bournemouth. Megapari's 1.90 on Man United is shorter than our fair price of 2.01: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Man United vs Bournemouth

Goals are expected: 1.8 for Man United and 1.3 for Bournemouth, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Man United vs Bournemouth correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Man United and Bournemouth in their last five

Man United have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Man United: last five matches

Bournemouth: last five matches

Man United vs Bournemouth head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Man United won none, Bournemouth won 2 and 4 were drawn. The most recent, on 20 March 2026, finished Bournemouth 2–2 Man United.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Man United has drifted from 1.79 to 1.90 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.44 to 1.49, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.