Marseille vs Le Havre prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 25 October

Marseille host Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 19:15 EAT. The match is played at Velodrome (Marseille). Marseille are 9th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Le Havre are 18th with 2.

Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?

The model makes Marseille clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 21% and Le Havre at 17%. Megapari's 1.64 on Marseille sits right on our fair price of 1.61.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Marseille to win (62%) and Marseille or draw (83%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Marseille vs Le Havre

Expected goals are 2.0 for Marseille and 0.9 for Le Havre, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Marseille vs Le Havre correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Marseille and Le Havre in their last five

Marseille have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Le Havre have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Marseille: last five matches

Le Havre: last five matches

Marseille vs Le Havre head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Marseille won 5, Le Havre won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Le Havre 0–1 Marseille.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Marseille has drifted from 1.61 to 1.64 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.73 to 1.66, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.