EFL Championship
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Middlesbrough
Cardiff City
- Middlesbrough
- 59%Megapari 1.47
- Draw
- 22%Megapari 4.70
- Cardiff City
- 19%Megapari 5.45
- Middlesbrough to win59% · fair 1.69Bet 1.47
- Middlesbrough or draw81% · fair 1.24
xG 1.9–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (11%)
Middlesbrough host Cardiff City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City?
Middlesbrough are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 22% for the draw and 19% for Cardiff City. Megapari's 1.47 on Middlesbrough is shorter than our fair price of 1.69: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Middlesbrough to win (59%) and Middlesbrough or draw (81%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough to win Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.47 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.64 | 4.70 |
| Cardiff City to win | 19% | 5.22 | 5.45 |
| Middlesbrough or draw Tip | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Draw or Cardiff City | 41% | 2.46 | – |
| Middlesbrough or Cardiff City | 78% | 1.27 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.22 | – |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City
Expected goals are 1.9 for Middlesbrough and 1.1 for Cardiff City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.13 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.12 |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.76 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 10.98 |
| 3-1 | 6.2% | 16.16 |
Form: Middlesbrough and Cardiff City in their last five
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. Cardiff City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Middlesbrough: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Millwall (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (home)EFL Championship | 4-3 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Burnley (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Cardiff City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth (away)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Middlesbrough won 2, Cardiff City won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 4 January 2025, finished Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2025 | Middlesbrough – Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Cardiff City – MiddlesbroughEFL Championship | 0-2 |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Cardiff City – MiddlesbroughEFL Championship | 1-4 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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